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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Commodities count down to the trilateral summit, potential profit taking in XAU

The prospect of a trilateral summit involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US has led to cautious profit-taking in gold as traders await further developments.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Commodities count down to the trilateral summit, potential profit taking in XAU

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  • In short, the commodity space awaits the trilateral summit between Ukraine, Russia and the US today and potentially into tomorrow. Timing and details around the meeting are currently light, though we do know the attendees. From Ukraine, Umerrov, Budanov, Arakhamia and Hnatov. From Russia, Kostyukov; note, Dmitriev is also in the UAE, unclear if he will parake. From the US, Witkoff and Kushner.
  • Crude is firmer by just under a USD a barrel. Towards highs of USD 60.22/bbl and USD 64.93/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively. Upside that is more a consolidation from the downside seen on Thursday than a fundamentally-driven move higher. 
  • Gas benchmarks diverge slightly. Dutch TTF is near-enough flat today, but set to see the week out with gains of c. EUR 3/MWh and over EUR 10/MWh over the last two weeks, as things stand. For the US, the benchmark is pulling back a touch from the five-day rally seen, but as with TTF, NG remains at the upper end of the week's parameters with gains of c. 50 cents at the moment. Again, the narrative for the space remains firmly on the cold spell that has been impacting Europe and some parts of APAC, with the east coasts of America set to take a hit over the next few days.
  • XAU pulled back in the early European morning. A move that, interestingly, occurred alongside downside in US equity futures at the time. As such, the move is perhaps profit-taking from recent gains; we also note similar action in silver at the time, though XAG remains firmer on the day. Spot gold briefly broke below USD 4.9k/oz, after hitting USD 4967/oz overnight. 
  • Base metals feature gains in 3M LME Copper. Upside that seemingly occurred alongside strength in China overnight. At best 3M LME to USD 12.97k/T. Note, Shanghai Futures Exchange is to adjust price limits and margin ratios for nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc, and stainless steel futures as of the 27th January settlement.
Context

Crude prices are consolidating after last week's declines, while natural gas remains buoyed by demand concerns driven by cold weather in Europe and the US. This geopolitical context can lead to volatile responses in commodity markets, particularly if significant announcements arise from the summit.

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