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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks and precious metals benefits from growing US and Iran tension, whilst copper lags on weak European sentiment and Chinese holiday

The heightened tensions between the US and Iran are driving crude oil prices higher, as fears of escalating conflict lead to increased demand for energy and safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 19th February 2026

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks and precious metals benefits from growing US and Iran tension, whilst copper lags on weak European sentiment and Chinese holiday

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  • Crude benchmarks remain elevated amid heightening geopolitical tension between the US and Iran following the Axios report on Wednesday which noted that the US President Trump’s administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise. Tensions continue to persist, with an overnight report from CNN that the US military is ready to strike Iran as early as this weekend and the WSJ reporting that the US has gathered the greatest amount of air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. WTI and Brent are trading at the upper end prices of USD 64.84-66.27/bbl and USD 70.18-71.60/bbl, respectively, with Brent touching the USD 71/bbl, which marks the first time since August last year.
  • Elsewhere in geopolitics with Russia and Ukraine, there hasn’t been much development to move crude prices. Last night, Ukrainian President Zelensky says next meeting round of talks with Russia to occur in Switzerland; Ukraine and Russia "close to" having a document establishing how any ceasefire will be monitored. Earlier this morning, the Ukrainian President also commented that he is aware that the US and Europe have been talking to Russia, and they must be prepared to react to surprises.
  • Precious metals are firmer, benefiting from haven demand from the ongoing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, with the yellow metal crossing the USD 5,000/oz mark. The weaker USD ahead of the FOMC minutes also spurred demand for the yellow metal. XAU and XAG are trading at the upper range of USD 4979.14-5040.21/oz and USD 76.355-79.355.
  • Copper price action is moving contrary to the trend seen in precious metals. Risk sentiment in the early European session as well as subdued activity from Asia due to the Chinese holiday has seen the red metal trading lower thus far. 3M LME copper trades at the lower price range of USD 12.846-12.937k/t. 
Context

However, risk aversion stemming from weak European sentiment and the Chinese holiday is negatively impacting copper prices, highlighting the fragmented nature of market reactions to geopolitical events. This divergence suggests traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments for further implications on commodity prices.

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