[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks continue to slip, XAU holds beneath USD 4k/oz

Newsquawk Staff · 25 Jun 2026, 09:40 UTC

The geopolitical environment has lacked any material updates over the past couple of days, but conflicting remarks continue to be made. On Wednesday, President Trump reiterated that it is unacceptable to have fees on the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, Secretary of State Rubio went one step further by clarifying that the term tolls or fees are semantics. This is a direct pushback from the Iranian position that they would implement environmental/navigational fees on the Strait.
Attention today has been on a recent route dispute on the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC rejected a newly formed shipping lane, which traverses towards Omani waters, with the Group stating that it only accepts passage through it own routes. The IRGC warned that any attempts to pass through the Strait, outside of their own route, will be dealt with accordingly.
WTI and Brent are once again on a weak footing this morning, trading lower by c. 1.3% and 1.5% respectively. Markets continue to cheer the reopening of the Strait, with dozens of ships continuing to pass through daily. It is unclear how long this exuberance will last, given the risks surrounding the new Strait route and conflicting remarks and the volatile Lebanon-Israel situation. On the latter point, following the negotiation talks earlier in the week, Israel has agreed to pull back from parts of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
Spot gold trades shy of the USD 4k/oz mark, and holds within a USD 3,962-4,018/oz range, which is towards the bottom end of Wednesday’s trading bands. Analysts highlight several factors for the recent move lower in gold, which includes: 1) loss of safe-haven appeal, 2) stronger USD, 3) hawkish shift at the Fed, spurred following Warsh’s debut. On the latter point, Warsh ultimately highlighted the importance of price stability, which helped to push back on traders eyeing a debasement trade.
Elsewhere, for the yellow metal, Bloomberg reported that major Chinese banks are reportedly shutting services supporting retail precious metals trading after gold and silver volatility. Elsewhere, 3M LME copper is firmer this morning, and trades within a USD 13,056.5-13,242.13/t range.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 23 Oct, 10:15 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump says the US crushed Iran, and may want to do it a "little more".
Crude benchmarks firmer on ongoing tensions in the Middle East; recent bout of strength comes after the Houthis launched another missile towards Saudi interests.

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Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

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