[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks remains underpinned despite US President Trump's attempt to curb concern around the Strait of Hormuz

Newsquawk Staff · 4 Mar 2026, 10:41 UTC

Crude benchmarks are firmer this morning as geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to underpin the complex, with WTI (+2.8%) and Brent (+3.3%) trading at the upper ranges of USD 74.37-77.23/bbl and USD 81.28-84.48/bbl, respectively.
WTI and Brent were pressured after US President Trump said the US will provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade travelling through the Gulf. However, as the market digested this news, oil prices pared back gains due to apprehension about the time required to implement the financial security. Furthermore, desks highlighted the practical difficulty of implementing the plan, noting that vessel escort costs will be too high, even if implemented. Adding to more concerns about oil supply, Saudi Arabia announces that there was an attempt to attack Ras Tanura refinery, however, there was no damage reported at the refinery.
Other updates on the war include comments from a top aide of former Supreme Leader Khamenei stating that Iran has no intention of negotiating with the US. Elsewhere, the Russian Transport Ministry reported that a Russian gas tanker was attacked in the Mediterranean Sea, claiming Ukrainian naval drones attacked Russian gas tankers from Libya's coast.
Focus has also been on European Nat Gas amid the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. However, prices slipped some 7% following reports that Iran's Ministry of Intelligence reached out to the CIA indirectly after the conflict began with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict, although US officials are reportedly sceptical that either the Trump administration or Iran is ready for an off-ramp in the short term at least.

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Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

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