[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude climbs amid a Black Sea tanker incident and ongoing Iranian focus

• Crude firmer with geopolitics in focus.
• Overnight action was somewhat rangebound, as there was no significant escalation or development. However, we did get reports via CBS that President Trump was briefed on military and covert operations against Iran, but no decision has been made.
• Since, as participants digest this risk and reports via BBG that two tankers were attacked in proximity to the Black Sea loading terminal for the CPC, crude has climbed and posts upside in excess of USD 1.00/bbl. At highs of USD 60.82/bbl and USD 65.20/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively.
• We now await an update from POTUS, or someone in the administration, as to what the decision is regarding Iran. And for further details on the tanker incidents.
• Note, while not a significant driver thus far, we highlight a report in Politico that a push by French President Macron and Italian PM Meloni to begin discussions with the Russian Kremlin is gaining traction in EU capitals and in Brussels itself. The goal of this is to ensure EU red lines are not breached and show the US that the EU has leverage in the situation.

The rise in crude prices is being driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly incidents involving tankers near the Black Sea and military considerations regarding Iran. While the market digests these developments, the focus remains on the potential implications for supply dynamics and broader energy markets as officials weigh their responses.