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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude climbs but is towards the low-end of the week's range, TTF leads, metals tarnished

Crude oil prices have edged higher but remain near the lower end of their weekly range, suggesting that while there is some underlying strength, it may not be robust.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at , 20 minutes before this page
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China is adjusting trading limits for silver and nickel futures, the maximum number of intraday positions for silver has been reduced to 3k lots (prev. 7k) , as of January 20th

Israel's Mossad Director Barnea arrived in the US on Friday for discussions relating to Iran, Axios reports citing sources. US is sending additional military capabilities to the region, to be prepared in case POTUS orders a strike, sources add

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude climbs but is towards the low-end of the week's range, TTF leads, metals tarnished

Russia's Kremlin says they are expecting US envoys Kushner and Witkoff to visit Moscow, although no official date has been set yet

BoE's Bailey "Global imbalances in a more fragmented world"

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  • Crude benchmarks are firmer this morning, and while they are set to end the week in the green with upside of c. USD 0.80/bbl for WTI and USD 1.0/bbl for Brent, they are towards the lower-end of the week's c. USD 4.00/bbl parameters.
  • Overnight, geopolitical developments were limited and the pause in tensions between US and Iran appears to be holding.
  • On that, a CNN article shed some light on the various factors behind President Trump's decision not to take military action. These include a call from Israeli PM Netanyahu, who encouraged POTUS to hold off on taking any action, as they do not believe the Iranian regime would fall quickly and amid concern over the status of Israel's missile defences. More broadly, the piece notes that in the event of action being taken, Trump is in favour of limited strikes as opposed to intensive operations that could bring the US into a larger conflict, sources state.
  • Continuing with energy but away from crude, gas benchmarks remain alight and at highs. Drivers remain the same as discussed in recent sessions, including: Iran supply, European cold spell, Asian demand, and expectations for a cold spell in APAC next week. Dutch TTF briefly surmounted the EUR 35/MWh mark this morning, and while it is currently just off that, the benchmark remains on track to end the week with gains of c. EUR 6/MWh, in the biggest weekly rally since late-June.
  • Spot gold is under modest pressure. Below the USD 4.6k/oz handle despite a contained USD, but hit as the risk tone stateside is constructive and geopolitics, as discussed, hasn't escalated. Further pressure is also potentially stemming from the firmer global yield environment.
  • Base peers were softer overnight, hit by China cracking down on high-frequency trading via the removal of servers from some data centres. Action that pushed 3M LME Copper below the USD 13k/t handle early doors and since to a USD 12.77k/t trough, lower by over USD 300/t on the session.
Context

The geopolitical landscape, particularly between the US and Iran, appears stable for now, which is helping to temper any significant upside in crude. Meanwhile, gas prices are benefiting from seasonal demand, but metals like gold and copper are under pressure due to a favorable risk sentiment and regulatory actions in China that have negatively impacted base metals.

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