[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude climbs to new four-month highs as Trump reportedly considers a new strike on Iran

• Crude benchmarks have steadily moved higher and have reached new four-month highs, with Brent Apr'26 climbing above USD 69/bbl, as probabilities of a US strike on Iran rise. CNN reported in the late hours of Wednesday, citing sources, that US President Trump is considering a new large-scale attack on Iran due to the lack of progress on a nuclear deal. More recently, Kpler's Bakr reported that Trump isn't looking for a war, but that he wants a diplomatic win or an "organic" internal uprising.
• Polymarket currently predicts a 48% chance that the US will strike Iran by the end of February, while a 65% chance of a strike is predicted by June 30th.
• Worries over oil and gas production due to the Arctic storm have subsided for now, with Henry Hub futures consolidating below USD 4/MMBtu after peaking at USD 7.43/MMBtu earlier in the week.

The rise in crude prices to four-month highs is largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding potential U.S. actions in Iran. As markets assess President Trump's reported considerations for a military strike, investors may react with increased risk aversion, impacting not only energy prices but also currency and equity markets.