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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures dip and metals rise amid some geopolitical optimism

Crude futures have pulled back from their recent highs, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply concerns, particularly around the Middle East.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude futures dip and metals rise amid some geopolitical optimism

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  • Crude futures continue to retreat from yesterday’s peak, with WTI between USD 92.47-94.80/bbl and Brent in a USD 105.05-108.60/bbl range, fluctuating at the whim of supply and geopolitical headlines. These include comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent that the US could pursue another SPR release to keep prices down and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil. Meanwhile, the White House is reportedly not implementing a crude export ban, and Chevron is restarting the jet fuel unit at its El Segundo refinery. Additionally, Israeli officials confirm that the attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field is unlikely to be repeated, while Prime Minister Netanyahu says the war will end sooner than many expect. Saudi officials see a base case for oil rising to USD 180/bbl if disruptions persist into late April, according to the WSJ. Elsewhere, US Energy Secretary Wright says the Trump administration has no plans to impose restrictions on oil and gas exports, while US lawmakers are reportedly in talks over energy permitting reforms. EU member states are set to request that the European Commission design temporary, targeted national measures to mitigate the impact of energy costs, according to a draft document.
  • European natural gas fell up to 3% on Friday after Israel and the US reassured markets following attacks on Persian Gulf energy facilities. Prices remain up about 20% for the week and have doubled since the war began. Missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant damaged two trains, representing 17% of exports, with repairs potentially taking five years. Morgan Stanley sees a 4% supply shortfall in 2026, with prolonged outages affecting 2027–2028 oversupply forecasts.
  • Spot gold stabilises after its recent slide, which saw the yellow metal briefly test the USD 4,500/oz level, where support holds, although the precious metal remains on course for its worst weekly loss in six years following a deluge of hawkish-leaning central bank updates amid inflationary pressures driven by the war-related surge in oil prices. Spot gold resides in a USD 4,634-4,735.93/oz at the time of writing.
  • Copper futures rebound from yesterday’s intraday dip, although further upside remains capped by a subdued risk environment. 3M LME copper trades in a 12,145.00- 12,359.00/t range at the time of writing.
Context

Optimism from Israeli officials and U.S. commentary on sanctions appears to be easing fears of further disruptions, contributing to this dip in oil while supporting gains in metals like gold and copper. This dynamic highlights the delicate balance between geopolitical risks and market sentiment, affecting energy and commodity prices globally.

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