[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude gains in choppy trade as the Iranian war continues; metals move with the USD

• WTI and Brent futures rebounded overnight after declining yesterday as the Iran war drags on but with no major escalation, while there was pressure seen in late US trade on reports that US Special Envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi have been in contact in recent days. However, Iran denied this shortly after, which, alongside Iranian attacks on its neighbouring energy assets, facilitated a recovery in oil. During the European morning, it was reported that the Fujairah port has suspended oil loadings, while Israel suggested that they Iran's Top Security Chief Larijani was killed in the airstrike. Elsewhere, on the Strait of Hormuz, EU's Kallas said a model similar to the Black Sea could be used in the Strait of Hormuz but the question is what neighbouring countries, including Iran, could agree on, and the door is not closed on the participation in the Strait. Modest downticks were also seen as Iraq's oil minister said they are in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, state news reported. WTI resides in a USD 92.88-97.65/bbl range and Brent in a USD 101.44-104.98/bbl parameter.
• Spot gold resides in a narrows range and moves largely in tandem with the USD as geopolitics and inflationary woes trump potential haven flows. Spot gold trades on either side of the USD 5,000/oz mark in a USD 4,994.66-5,044.27/oz range.
• Base metals are mixed, copper futures plateaued overnight after gaining throughout the prior day alongside the positive risk sentiment. Price action has remained under USD 13,000/t in a USD 12,736.45- 12,949.02/t range.

Crude oil prices are experiencing a recovery due to ongoing tensions in Iran, with key developments such as the suspension of oil loadings at Fujairah port and communication between U.S. and Iranian officials impacting the market. This geopolitical backdrop is influencing metals, which are moving in line with the U.S. dollar, underscoring how geopolitical risks and inflation concerns can overshadow traditional safe-haven demand.