[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude holds an upward bias, strikes reported in Kuwait and Hormuz

Newsquawk Staff · 4 Aug 2026, 08:40 UTC

In geopolitics, President Trump said talks with Iran were ongoing and suggested the Strait of Hormuz could reopen by Tuesday, although US officials clarified that no new negotiations were planned beyond existing mediator-led discussions. Tensions remain high, with reports of Iranian drone attacks on a US base in Kuwait and vessels near the Strait, including a cargo ship struck off Oman. Iran warned that continued efforts to break the blockade could put US forces and vessels at serious risk, while Iranian leaders reportedly believe they can withstand US pressure and raise costs through regional proxies and threats to shipping. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister is expected to visit Islamabad.
WTI Sept and Brent Oct are firmer amid geopolitics but to varying magnitudes, with the former currently +0.6% intraday and the latter +1.3%. The difference in gains could potentially be a function of President Trump yesterday criticising major oil companies, saying they were making excessive profits and urging them to lower retail fuel prices. The mechanism being: if US refiners are forced to lower fuel prices while crude costs remain elevated, refining margins shrink, prompting them to reduce crude processing to balance books and, in turn, lowering demand for WTI crude. Nonetheless, WTI trades around the middle of a USD 79.62-81.45/bbl range vs yesterday’s USD 78.43-81.30/bbl range. Brent resides within a USD 83.80-85.27/bbl range vs Monday’s 81.55-84.66/bbl range. Dutch TTF is back above EUR 59/MWh, having traded under EUR 58/MWh
Metals are firmer across the board as DXY remains contained despite the gains across crude, with precious and base metals benefiting from the current stability in oil prices under July highs as President Trump continues to tout diplomacy with Iran, and with no further escalations seen thus far this European morning. Spot gold remains under yesterday’s USD 4,019-4,079/oz range within a current USD 4,043-4,073/oz range. Base metals also benefit across the board, with 3M LME copper back above USD 14k/t in the current 13,871.88- 14,049.30/t range at the time of writing.

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 23 Oct, 10:15 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump says the US crushed Iran, and may want to do it a "little more".
Crude benchmarks firmer on ongoing tensions in the Middle East; recent bout of strength comes after the Houthis launched another missile towards Saudi interests.

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Iran and US talks continue, and reports that the deal is close are wrong.
WTI crude+1.5%
Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
WTI crude−4.6%
"A breakthrough is expected to be announced this week to halt the escalation between Washington and Tehran", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing a source.
WTI crude−1.1%

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