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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude loses its steam as some pressure is let out of the US-Iran situation

Crude prices are under pressure as tensions between the US and Iran ease, following President Trump's remarks about a halt in violence.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude loses its steam as some pressure is let out of the US-Iran situation

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  • Crude benchmarks are on the back foot and remain near lows of USD 59.68/bbl and US 64.15/bbl for WTI and Brent after some of the pressure was let out of the US-Iran situation.
  • A move driven in late US hours by President Trump saying he had been told that the killing within Iran was stopping. However, we then saw some reports of explosions in Tehran, an update that sparked a short-lived spike of c. USD 0.50/bbl, before paring amid some uncertainty around the validity of that report.
  • Thereafter, updates around Iran continued, but the narrative that the US does not appear to be set to take action, for now at least, holds. We await any further update from the administration and/or POTUS in today's session.
  • Elsewhere, the Ukraine conflict is back at the forefront of focus after Trump stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky is to blame for the stalemate, not Russian President Putin.
  • As discussed earlier in the week, gas benchmarks remain bid with gains of nearly a EUR/Mwh at a EUR 33/MWh peak for Dutch TTF. Drivers for the space include any potential impact to Iranian flows to Turkey, the above Ukraine situation escalating and the continued cold spell in Europe.
Context

However, the situation remains fluid with conflicting reports from Tehran creating uncertainty. The broader geopolitical landscape, including the Ukraine conflict, continues to be a focal point, affecting both oil and gas markets significantly.

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