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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude on the backfoot as attention returns to Ukraine, XAU at another ATH

Crude prices are under pressure as the strengthening USD and positive remarks regarding US-Russia discussions weigh on sentiment, with WTI and Brent benchmarks hitting recent lows.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude on the backfoot as attention returns to Ukraine, XAU at another ATH

UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.66x (prev. 3.10x), avg. yield 3.821% (prev. 3.855%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.4bps)

Chevron (CVX) reportedly aims to finalise the sale of its oil assets in Singapore in Q1, according to sources

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  • Crude curtailed by a pickup in the USD and after the geopolitical remarks re. Ukraine on Tuesday.
  • US Envoy Witkoff, on Tuesday, said that discussions with Russian counterpart Dmitriev were "very positive". A remark that seemingly sparked a bout of pressure in Crude, causing the benchmarks to drift into the early APAC session before stabilising and then dipping once again to troughs of USD 59.22/bbl and USD 63.61/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively.
  • Currently, the complex holds around USD 0.60/bbl off those lows, but remains in the red by around USD 0.50/bbl on the session.
  • Ahead, we await any geopolitical update from Davos with POTUS in attendance.
  • A familiar story for spot gold, at another ATH of USD 4888/oz. The narrative for the yellow metal is much the same as in recent sessions.
  • Base peers in the green, 3M LME Copper firmer by over 1%. Action spurred by the stabilisation of the risk tone seen in some regions overnight and amid gains in China, though the region's strength lacked a specific fundamental driver.
Context

This geopolitical backdrop is crucial as ongoing tensions impact energy prices, while the recent fresh highs in gold suggest a flight to safety amid uncertainties. Traders should closely monitor any developments from Davos, particularly statements from the US President that could further influence market dynamics.

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