[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude prices continue to fall; India to stop importing Russian oil as part of the trade deal with the US

• Crude benchmarks continue to extend on Monday's losses, with WTI and Brent nearing USD 61/bbl and USD 65/bbl. Oil prices traded muted throughout the APAC session but were pressured following comments by Russia's Novak saying they have a surplus in fuel supplies.
• US President Trump also announced on Truth Social that the US has struck a deal with India, in which the US cuts India's tariff rate to 18% from 25% and removing the additional 25% tariff that was imposed due to Russian oil imports into India. In return, India is to stop importing Russian oil and instead purchase US, and possibly Venezuelan oil.
• Nat Gas futures continue to fall, with Dutch TTF returning to EUR 32/MWh as concerns over the Arctic storm affecting gas production ease.

Crude prices are declining as India commits to ceasing Russian oil imports in exchange for reduced tariffs on US goods, allowing a potential increase in US crude exports. This deal highlights a significant geopolitical shift that could alter global oil supply dynamics and enhance US influence in the region, affecting price trajectories for both oil and natural gas. Market participants should closely watch how this may impact not only energy prices but also trade relations between major economies.