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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude prices trade rangebound as Nat Gas futures surge due to the Arctic storm

Crude prices for WTI and Brent remain rangebound, indicating that sentiment surrounding oil supply disruptions is balanced against the significant surge in natural gas prices due to the Arctic storm.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude prices trade rangebound as Nat Gas futures surge due to the Arctic storm

BoJ accounts provided no clear signal of intervention in the JPY on Friday

German Ifo Business Climate (Jan) 87.6 vs. Exp. 88.1 (Prev. 87.6)

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  • WTI Mar'26 continues to oscillate beyond USD 61/bbl while Brent Apr'26 rotates around USD 65/bbl, seemingly unaffected by the day's rise in Nat Gas prices, despite the gradual rise in crude prices in recent sessions due to concerns of supply disruptions.
  • Modest downside was seen at the start of the European session as Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil gradually restarted oil production at its Tengiz oil field.
  • Henry Hub futures gapped beyond USD 6/MMBtu, its highest level since the start of the Ukraine war, while the Dutch TTF future nears EUR 42/MWh, following the Arctic storm in the US that has shut around 10% of production in the US.
  • Prices of natural gas have been rising in recent days due to poor weather across Europe, Asia and now the US, freezing oil and natural gas wells, in addition to geopolitical concerns and accompanying supply concerns.
Context

The rising natural gas prices are a signal of market tightness, which may impact energy sector trading strategies and could lead to re-evaluations of the oil price outlook if the cold weather persists and production remains affected.

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