[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude rebounds following after recent losses with newsflow quiet; Nat gas rises

Crude oil is rebounding after two days of losses, driven by geopolitical factors such as the U.S.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude rebounds following after recent losses with newsflow quiet; Nat gas rises

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  • WTI and Brent front-month futures post mild upside as the contracts rebound after two consecutive sessions of losses and after the US’ effective seizure of Venezuela’s crude, which promises more barrels in the market and a likely move away from Canadian oil for the US. Further, US President Trump said the US would be extracting Venezuelan oil for years; "the oil will take a while in Venezuela"; and added that US oversight of Venezuela could last for years. Aside from that, overall newsflow has been light with notable updates sparse thus far on geopolitics, although China's Ambassador rejected Japan's export controls negotiations attempts. WTI Feb resides in a USD 55.97-56.51/bbl range whilst Brent Mar sits in a USD 59.96-60.48/bbl band.
  • Nat Gas, meanwhile, is on a firmer footing once again after Dutch TTF settled over 2.5% higher, albeit off best levels, with traders citing the current cold snap across some of Europe. ING suggests that EU gas storage is now 58% full vs a 5-year average of 72%.
Context

seizure of Venezuela's crude, which adds supply to the market and could shift U.S. imports away from Canada. The market's upward movement is also supported by light news flow, suggesting that traders are positioning themselves ahead of potential supply increases. Meanwhile, natural gas is also gaining momentum due to colder weather in Europe, despite EU gas storage levels being below the five-year average, which may keep pressure on prices.

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