[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude remains underpinned amid geopolitical conflict, despite the US administration effort to curb rising oil prices
Newsquawk Staff ·
- Crude benchmarks remain firmer, though are off their best levels seen yesterday, which saw Brent firmer by 4.9%, marking the highest close since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran began. As the conflict reaches its seventh day, there’s been little sign of a reprieve following comments by the Iranian Foreign Minister via NBC News that Iran is ready for a US ground invasion of the country, with further comments this morning via Al Arabiya where the FM said that Iran has no choice but to continue fighting.
- However, the slight ease in prices seen this morning is largely due to reports that China is in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz. It was also reported that the US issued a temporary 30-day waiver to allow the sale of Russian oil currently stranded at sea to India as part of the US government’s effort to ease oil prices. Furthermore, it was reported that the administration is planning to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), which currently sits at 415mln barrels. That being said, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US administration's impact to drive down prices in the medium/long term may become obsolete. For example, shipping giant Maersk announced its decision to temporarily suspend services connecting the Middle East to the Far East and Europe. Furthermore, comments from the Qatar Energy Minister via the FT, who reportedly cautions that the Middle East conflict could cause all Gulf energy producers to shut production within weeks, increasing oil to USD 150/bbl, have done little to ease concerns about rising energy prices.
- Other key updates in the Middle East conflict include reports from Fars News that Iran is set to use newer missiles in the coming days. Elsewhere in the energy space, the Shanghai Futures Energy Exchange will adjust price limits and the 9th of March settlement. WTI and Brent are trading in the upper ranges of USD 78.24-82.93/bbl and 83.16-86.35/bbl, respectively.
- Al-Mayadeen correspondent in Iran says Iranian officials believe that Trump wants to bring the nuclear issue into the negotiations, which Iran rejects
- Ukrainian President Zelensky says negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the US could take place as early as November 10th
- US Midterms (6 days out): Florida flips to a Republican early-vote lead and Kansas narrows further; Crystal Ball shifts House and Senate races towards Democrats
- Israeli election results show Netanyahu's bloc with 53 seats, Eisenkot's bloc with 47 and Arab parties with 19, following the counting of all votes excluding double-envelope ballots, i24 reports
- Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Spokesman says protocol for building small reactors with Russia is being finalized
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