[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude tilts higher as markets still await confirmation of any talks/ceasefire

Regional mediators are actively working to extend the US-Iran ceasefire and secure a second round of talks, with both sides agreeing in principle to reconvene, though no date or venue has been set. The Trump administration is pushing a two-stage strategy: use sustained economic and military pressure to force Iran toward the brink of a broader deal, then finalise it in a follow-up face-to-face meeting, with technical negotiations on implementation likely to extend beyond the current truce. A senior Iranian official said the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and the duration of its nuclear restrictions remain unresolved, adding that fundamental disagreements persist over nuclear issues.
Pakistan has taken a central mediation role, coordinating messages between Tehran and Washington and engaging both politically and militarily, although officials confirm no timeline has been agreed for the next round. Despite publicly downplaying the need for a ceasefire extension, US officials acknowledge it may ultimately be required to keep negotiations alive as talks progress.
Israel–Lebanon talks remain fragile, with a US-backed round already held and both sides agreeing in principle to continue, though no timeline is set. Washington is pushing for further negotiations, but Israel insists on security conditions—namely Hezbollah disarmament—before any ceasefire, while Lebanon wants an immediate halt to fighting. Trump noted that the Israeli and Lebanese leaders will speak, although Hezbollah will not partake in talks.
Crude prices edged higher following yesterday’s losses as traders feel the ceasefire could be prolonged and negotiations restarted. Brent Jun holds above USD 95/bbl this European morning (in a USD 94.43-96.66/bbl range) while WTI Jun sits in a 87.32-89.54/bbl parameter.
Spot gold trades modestly higher, just above USD 4,800/oz and well within yesterday’s USD 4,786-4,871/oz range.
Base metals are flat/positive with 3M LME copper holding above USD 13k/t in a current USD 13,281.00-13,376.58/t range. Overnight data showed China’s Q1 growth accelerated on strong exports (Y/Y printed at the top end of China’s 2026 target of 4.5-5%), while March retail sales rose but slowed from February; analysts said the Iran war still poses risks to the outlook.