[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude trades choppy despite US-Iran talks in Oman back on the table

• Crude benchmarks continued to trade with lack of clear direction. The pressure seen at the start of the week (following plans of US-Iran talks) was completely reversed in Wednesday's session over reports that the talks have been cancelled due to Tehran's demands to change the location and talk format. Late in Wednesday's session, Iran's Foreign Minister re-confirmed that talks are back on in Oman for Friday. Prices dropped at the end of the US session.
• At the start of the APAC session, crude prices continued to fall as geopolitical risk ease slightly, with WTI and Brent dipping to a trough of USD 63.46/bbl and USD 67.71/bbl respectively. As the European session got underway, benchmarks reversed earlier losses, with Brent returning back above USD 68.50/bbl.
• Today is the expiration day of the New START Treaty. This outcome was expected amid a lack of efforts from both sides to renew the agreement. This removes the limit on the number of deployed strategic nuclear missiles for both the US and Russia. Former Russian President Medvedev, who signed the original START treaty, suggested that it would speed up the "Doomsday Clock" if the deal expires.

The return of US-Iran talks in Oman has introduced volatility to crude prices, illustrating how geopolitical developments can sharply influence market sentiment. Despite the current uncertainty surrounding these discussions, the overall trend shows that crude benchmarks are struggling for direction as traders react to changing narratives. This ongoing situation highlights the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical risks, which could impact supply expectations and price stability in the near term.