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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude trades slightly softer but near this week's highs as focus remains on US and Iran

Crude prices are under pressure despite lingering near weekly highs, primarily due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude trades slightly softer but near this week's highs as focus remains on US and Iran

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  • Crude benchmarks are taking a breather, with both WTI and Brent trading subdued, though still near highs for the week, due to the heightening geopolitical tension between the US and Iran. US President Trump yesterday reiterated that Iran has 10-15 days to strike a deal, else something bad will happen. However, during a report by the WSJ, which stated that Trump is reportedly weighing a limited strike to force Iran into a nuclear deal, the President is still considering a range of military options, but says he still prefers diplomacy, leading to a drop in prices at the time. Iran, in a letter to the UN, said that if it were attacked, then all bases, facilities and assets of a hostile force in the region will constitute legitimate targets within the framework of Iran's defensive response. Elsewhere, on Russia and Ukraine, Tass reported that the next round of talks is possible next week. WTI and Brent are trading at the lower range of USD 66.10-67.03/bbl and 71.35-72.34/bbl, respectively.
  • Elsewhere, data from EIA crude oil stock change yesterday came in at -9.0mln vs. Exp. 2.1mln (Prev. 8.5mln). US President Trump also announced that 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil are on the way to Houston, and US-Venezuela energy cooperation is going well. The New Zealand government also provided a Russian sanctions update, which includes a designation of 23 individuals, 13 entities, and 100 vessels, while it lowered the oil price cap on Russian oil from USD 47.60/bbl to USD 44.10/bbl.
Context

The potential for military action alongside diplomatic efforts highlights a volatile geopolitical landscape that could affect oil supply; traders should be mindful of how this dynamic may continue to sway crude prices in the near term, especially in light of Trump's statements and Iran's defensive stance.

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