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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY continues strength into FOMC, Antipodeans underperform following soft Aussie CPI

The DXY's strength against G10 peers signifies its role as a safe haven amid rising oil prices, particularly ahead of key central bank events.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY continues strength into FOMC, Antipodeans underperform following soft Aussie CPI

Germany sells EUR 3.8bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 1.24x), average yield 3.08% (prev. 2.92%), retention 23.3% (prev. 23.66%)

Konecranes (KCR FH) Q1 2026 (EUR): Sales 0.9bln (exp. 1.0bln), Orders 1.07bln (exp. 1.09bln), adj. EBITDA 105mln (exp. 121mln).

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  • DXY continues to outperform most G10 peers as the preferred hedge against higher oil prices (Brent +3% to 116/bbl). Many catalysts will dictate the path forward for the Greenback, FOMC and BoC today, then the BoE and ECB on Thursday.
  • DXY remains supported by both the 100 and 200 DMAs at the 98.50 mark as crude benchmarks rise into a packed session. In addition to the Fed meeting, the Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair; the vote is set for 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
  • Fed Preview: Widely expected to leave rates unchanged, with focus squarely on Chair Powell’s guidance as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict. The recent surge in oil prices has pushed back rate cut expectations, with a Reuters poll showing a majority of economists now see easing delayed until at least September. Traders also seek details about Powell’s future, with this meeting expected to be his last as Fed Chair, providing Kevin Warsh is approved in time.
  • EUR is also lower against the Buck but fares better than peers despite German state CPIs being indicative of a cooler mainland series. EUR remains supported by the 1.17 mark, and ING writes this morning, "Tomorrow’s ECB meeting should, in our view, largely meet market expectations.", aside from geopols, the next catalyst for the EUR will be the Fed meeting today.
  • Antipodeans are the worst performers in the G10 space by a decent margin after Australia inflation for March was softer than expected and trimmed bets for hikes in Next week's RBA meeting. ING writes "The pullback in AUD looks mostly a function of stretched positioning rather than a real rethink of RBA expectations". AUD/NZD firmer by 0.1% after pulling back from highs of 1.2230. AUD/USD lower by 0.4%, currently at session lows, and looks to Tuesday's low of 0.7150 where it may encounter support. 
Context

The pullback in the AUD following softer CPI data indicates a shift in RBA rate hike expectations, emphasizing the need for traders to reassess their positioning going into the FOMC meeting.

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