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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY firms, NZD leads post-inflation data, GBP knocked by domestic politics

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY firms, NZD leads post-inflation data, GBP knocked by domestic politics

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  • Despite elements of risk in other assets, FX displays a risk-off bias today, with all G10 currencies bar NZD lower against the greenback.
  • DXY trades higher by 0.2%. Though there is no clear driver, the index bounced off a session low of 98.10, continuing a rebound from Monday's 98.00. This upside came around news that an Iranian delegation had not departed for Islamabad, contrasting earlier reporting. Technicals also likely at play here, around this news, USD/JPY surpassed the 159.00 mark, crude bounced, but hit resistance at USD 95.00/bbl - explaining why the haven USD and energy benchmarks are not in tandem this morning.
  • GBP is weaker against the Buck and EUR, participants are focusing on domestic political updates, geopolitics and a hawkish Labour force survey this morning. On politics, former UK Foreign Ministry Official Robbins essentially denied the PM's claims of due process in relation to Mandelson's appointment. This leaves the PM in a somewhat weaker position - and as such, we saw a c. 15pip move in EUR/GBP, which has since paired.
  • The data set for Feb, saw hotter-than-expected wage metrics and a much lower-than-expected unemployment rate. The series will be welcomed by policymakers on Threadneedle/Downing Street, signalling each were in a comfortable position pre-Middle East war & energy shock. ING writes "the details reveal the drop in the jobless rate is pretty much solely down to a rise in “economic inactivity” – that is, people neither in work nor actively seeking it." MUFG post-data wrote "We are currently forecasting only one rate hike from the BoE." GBP/USD saw an initial kneejerk higher, which since reversed amid the ongoing Robbins hearing.
  • NZD leads the G10 space after the latest inflation data spurred bets for rate hikes. Q1 metrics revealed that inflation surprisingly remained elevated above the RBNZ's 1-3% target. Markets are back to pricing in 81bps of tightening by year-end, similar to levels seen post-Bremen comments, though more hawkish than Monday.

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