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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY gains, to the detriment of the JPY with USD/JPY firmly above 162.00; EUR digests dovish German State CPI

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY gains, to the detriment of the JPY with USD/JPY firmly above 162.00; EUR digests dovish German State CPI

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  • Snapshot: G10s are lower against the USD to varying degrees. The CHF, EUR and JPY are all the laggards this morning, to the tune of c. 0.3%, whilst the Antipodeans are faring a little better vs peers.
  • DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 101.12 to 101.42 range. No real driver this morning for the index, but comes amidst a tense geopolitical risk-tone and ahead of key US data. The slight strength today can also be explained as a bit of a bounce back, after recent USD strength has faded a touch off recent highs. The high from Monday (101.07) was breached this morning, whereby another bout of strength could see a test of Friday’s high (101.57) and Thursday’s best (101.74).
  • Ahead focus will be on the US JOLTS data, which will provide markets with early information about the jobs situation heading into the NFP report on Thursday. In a bit more detail, the US JOLTs job openings for May (exp. 7.28mln, from 7.618mln); previously, the quits rate fell to 1.9% from 2.0%, while the vacancy rate was at 4.6% from 4.2%.
  • EUR/USD is amongst the worst performers this morning, as markets digest the sheer amount of ECB speakers at Sintra. Overall, the bias has been hawkish; namely, President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane have highlighted that the oil price curve remains elevated, and that could suggest higher costs for the economy. Nonetheless, policymakers have broadly reiterated data dependency and avoided any pre-commitment to July/September. On that front, Reuters sources suggested that given recent energy dynamics, September is now seen as more likely than July for another hike; the source clarified that a rate hike is not off the agenda. As it stands, money markets assign a 32% chance of a hike in July and a 70% chance of a move in September.
  • On the data front, the EUR has had dovish German State CPI metrics to contend with. Broadly speaking they are indicative of a cooler Y/Y print, despite mainland consensus for the headline remaining at 2.6%.
  • JPY is also amongst the laggards. Overnight, the pair jumped above the 162.00 mark, amidst commentary from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara. He initially suggested that he would not comment on FX, which saw the pair breach 162.00. However, a few minutes later, he stated that they are always ready to take necessary action on Forex. The move largely unwound on that jawboning attempt. Thereafter, Finance Minister Katayama also commented. She warned that they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US. USD/JPY currently holds within a 161.89-162.41 range.

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