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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY incrementally firmer awaiting further jobs data after an early Challenger Layoffs release; Antipodeans lag

The DXY shows incremental firmness amid a mixed performance from G10 currencies, as it awaits further labor market data following a significant drop in Challenger Layoffs.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY incrementally firmer awaiting further jobs data after an early Challenger Layoffs release; Antipodeans lag

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Hungarian Budget Balance (Dec) -1669B (Prev. -403B )

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  • DXY is essentially flat/incrementally firmer and trades above its 100 DMA within a fairly narrow 98.67 to 98.82 range; further upside for the Dollar could see the test of its 200 DMA at 98.87, the round 99.00 mark and then the 50 DMA at 99.08. G10s are mixed against the Dollar, with some underperformance in the Antipodeans which have been weighed on by the risk-tone and pressure in the metals complex.
  • Really not much driving things for the Dollar this morning, but with some focus on an early release of the US Challenger Layoffs (Dec), which fell to 35.55k (prev. 71.3k). The inner report highlighted that “while December is typically slow, this coupled with higher hiring plans, is a positive sign after a year of high job cutting plans”. A constructive picture for the labour market, which follows on from a rebound in the ADP in the prior session (albeit that printed shy of expectations). Ahead, a couple more labour market metrics in the form of jobless claims and RevelioLabs Employment data.
  • EUR is also flat and currently at the lower end of a narrow 1.1668-1.1682 range. A strong German Factory Orders print had little impact on the single currency this morning. Focus has been on regional geopolitics in the past couple of days; on one front, positive mood music out of Ukraine with President Zelenskiy suggesting that the war could end in H1’26. Elsewhere, Trump’s continued verbal assault on Greenland will keep NATO and allies on their toes.
  • Sticking in Europe, both Sweden and Switzerland published inflation metrics today. The former released a cooler-than-expected report, with Core inflation falling to 2.3% (prev. 2.4% Y/Y) – lower than the Riksbank’s own forecast. EUR/SEK lifted from 10.734 to 10.748 before extending to a peak of 10.7722. In terms of policy implications, this is the only inflation reading the Bank will get ahead of its next meeting – both ING and SEB reiterate that policymakers will continue to keep rates steady for the foreseeable future.
  • As for Switzerland, an in-line/slightly cooler CPI report, which keeps inflation well within the SNB's target range and as such is unlikely to significantly change the course of SNB policymakers. EUR/CHF was little moved on the report, and the SNB Minutes for the December meeting also had little impact.
Context

This positive signal for the labor market, coupled with upcoming jobless claims, suggests a potentially stable outlook for the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro's limited response to robust German Factory Orders indicates that geopolitical concerns may be dominating market sentiment, while subdued inflation metrics from Sweden suggest a steady policy outlook from the Riksbank.

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