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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is flat awaiting Retail Sales/ECI, JPY bid alongside JGB stabilisation whilst NOK gains post-inflation

The DXY remains flat as markets await significant U.S.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is flat awaiting Retail Sales/ECI, JPY bid alongside JGB stabilisation whilst NOK gains post-inflation

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  • DXY is flat and trades within a 96.79-97.00 range, taking a breather following the losses seen in the prior session. USD-specific newsflow has been lacking this morning, but will pick up later following the release of US Retail Sales and the Employment Cost Index; Fed speak is also due. On the trade front, Politico reported that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s summit is reportedly set for the first week of April – though the White House clarified that nothing is set in stone. ING opines that the index could trade within a 96.50-97.50 range over the next few days.
  • JPY is the outperformer this morning, in the aftermath of the LDP landslide victory on Sunday. As mentioned in the coverage on Monday, investors are seemingly deriving confidence from the renewed political stability, and trust recent vows by PM Takaichi that she aims to adhere to fiscal responsibility. Moreover, on the monetary policy side of things, markets are increasing their bets of faster BoJ normalisation. JGB pressure also subsided overnight (albeit were already within recent ranges), and the continued strength in the Nikkei will also push JPY bears away. ING, citing local brokers, expects JPY 10tln to enter Japanese equities over the next 3 months – which could see USD/JPY break below 155.00. The pair currently trades around 155.30, and within a 155.08-156.29 range.
  • G10s are mixed against the USD; as mentioned, JPY outperforms (+0.3%) whilst the Aussie is the slight laggard, as precious metals pull back a touch. The GBP remains on the backfoot, despite comments from PM Starmer who reiterated that he is to remain in his position – pushing back calls for him to resign. EUR is currently flat; earlier, ECB’s de Guindos failed to move the single currency, as his comments were largely in fitting with the Bank’s latest policy announcement. He stated that the ECB would need to be very vigilant if Chinese exports to Europe increases, via Econostream.
  • NOK is stronger this morning after the region’s inflation metrics topped expectations. In brief, Core Y/Y printed at 3.4% (exp. 3%), with the headline metrics also printing above forecasts. Norges Bank has longed reiterated the line that “the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year”. Some had seen a cut as early as March/May, whilst SEB saw a cut in June pre-release; following the data the firm said, “we will not change our forecast for a June cut based on this one inflation release, but risks for a later cut have increased". EUR/NOK is currently lower by 0.4%, and trades at the lower end of a 11.3468-11.4254 range.
Context

Retail Sales and Employment Cost Index data today, which could potentially influence the dollar's direction. Meanwhile, the JPY is gaining traction on optimism over political stability and expectations of quicker BoJ normalization, putting pressure on USD/JPY, while the NOK strengthens following positive inflation data that exceeded expectations, raising the prospect of future interest rate adjustments. In the broader context, these developments reflect varying trends in forex that could impact trading strategies ahead of upcoming economic releases.

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