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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is flat awaiting US President Trump, G10s mixed with Antipodeans leading whilst CHF lags

The DXY is holding steady as traders await President Trump's speech, which could influence market sentiment across currencies today, particularly regarding tariffs and trade tensions.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY is flat awaiting US President Trump, G10s mixed with Antipodeans leading whilst CHF lags

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  • DXY is essentially flat this morning, with the Dollar attempting to stabilise following selling pressure in the prior session; currently holding within a narrow 98.45 to 98.64 range, sitting below its 100 DMA at 98.69. Focus remains centred on President Trump and his speeches in Davos. The Greenland situation remains tense, with EU leaders pushing back on the recently imposed US tariffs. As it stands, the subject matter of Trump’s speech is unknown, but could touch on a multitude of different factors, including Ukraine/Russia, Greenland, trade/tariffs, Fed independence, defence spending and credit card caps. Trump is pencilled in to speak at 13:30 GMT, but could be subject to change as Trump’s plane to Davos was delayed by around 3 hours.
  • G10s broadly are mixed vs the Dollar, with mild outperformance in the Antipodeans (AUD +0.3%, NZD +0.3%), whilst the CHF (-0.3%) lags vs peers. Nothing behind the pressure in the Swiss Franc, but perhaps some paring of the outperformance seen in the prior session as the risk tone attempts to improve today. That aside, SNB's Schlegel said they could have negative inflation this year, though it is not a problem in the short-term. Elsewhere, attention this week has been on the JPY – which is currently posting very mild gains vs the USD. Stabilisation in the JPY comes as the recent JGB weakness subsided overnight.
  • GBP is currently flat vs the USD. Earlier, a mixed inflation report will do little to shift the dial at the BoE in the near-term. Headline topped expectations, but was subject to caveats, whilst the Core Y/Y metrics printed either in line or cooler-than-expected. ING opines that despite the uptick in the headline figure, UK inflation should still fall to 2% in April, and see cuts in both March and June. Cable currently trades within a 1.3414 to 1.3456 range.
Context

While the Antipodeans are showing mild gains against the dollar, the Swiss Franc is lagging without clear cause, potentially reflecting market repositioning following its earlier outperformance. The mixed bag of economic indicators from the UK is unlikely to prompt immediate action from the BoE, as inflation dynamics remain complex.

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