[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY wanes as oil eases and G10s gain; GBP unreactive to UK local elections

DXY is on a softer footing after gaining in the prior session as geopolitics heated up. To recap. US and Iran had a brief skirmish, although the US later downplayed it and suggested the ceasefire is not broken, whilst Iran said the US broke the ceasefire, but said the situation around the islands has gone back to normal, although commentary from Iran has been somewhat sparse vs the US. Ahead, participants will be on the lookout for further geopolitical update, and then the US jobs report (full preview available in the Research Suite) and with a few central bankers on the docket, including Fed's Cook, Waller, Goolsbee and Bowman. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 98.07-98.27 range, vs yesterday’s 97.82-98.28 range.
GBP benefits from a softer USD and largely overlooked the UK local elections thus far. To recap, Reform UK made significant early council election gains at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives; the polls are seen as a key test for PM Starmer; initial counts suggested Reform had gained more than 300 seats, while Labour lost 220 and the Conservatives lost 108, with most results due later. The initial readout from the UK local elections is not as bad as some feared for Labour, potentially providing limited/temporary respite to PM Starmer. Reminder, numerous key councils are yet to report. Separately, The Times reported Energy Secretary Miliband privately urged Starmer to consider setting out a resignation timeline around two weeks ago, as Labour rivals, including Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting, prepared potential leadership bids if local results were particularly damaging. GBP/USD towards the top end of a 1.3543-1.3590 range.
EUR/USD is firmer but remains just under 1.1750 (1.1721-1.1748 range), underpinned by the softer Buck. In trade, President Trump said the EU had promised to deliver its side of the deal and cut tariffs to zero, adding the bloc has until July 4th or tariffs would immediately rise to higher levels.
JPY is flat intraday vs the USD in a narrow 156.70-156.99 band following another volatile week, although the pair remains under its 100 DMA at 157.33. The pair consolidates in a tight range just shy of the 157.00 handle, as talks of FX intervention calmed, with Japanese markets looking ahead to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit to Japan.
Antipodeans post modest gains amid high-beta properties, a rebound in commodities, although gains are capped by the cautious tone across markets awaiting clarity on the US-Iran situation.