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[MARKET ANALYSIS] ECB speak drives EGBs lower, packed UK agenda ahead, but all focus on IEA/G7 updates

The ECB's recent comments have introduced a slight hawkish sentiment in the market, particularly concerning inflation expectations, which has contributed to downward pressure on EGBs.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] ECB speak drives EGBs lower, packed UK agenda ahead, but all focus on IEA/G7 updates

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  • APAC trade for fixed income was for the most part rangebound, with USTs and Bunds holding a handful of ticks in the red. JGBs also opened under pressure, with downside of 20 ticks at most. However, the move proved shortlived as strong demand at the 5yr JGB tap underpinned the benchmark and lifted it to a 131.98 high, just shy of yesterday's 132.01 best.
  • While relatively contained at first, EGBs came under renewed pressure early doors following ECB speak and a further uptick in energy benchmarks. Sending Bunds to a 126.58 trough over the course of the morning.
  • Firstly, ECB speak. A handful of officials have spoken but the main remarks came from Kazaks and Kazimir. Kazaks outlined that the ECB could act if the conflict lifts inflation expectations, while Kazimir said an Iran-related rate hike could be closer than thought, though clarified that there is no reason to act in March. Near term market pricing has seen a very slight hawkish move this morning, but more pertinently end-2026 pricing implies around 25bps of tightening, a little higher than yesterday's but some way off last week's peak when two 25bps hikes were priced.
  • Secondly, energy. The UKMTO update seemingly spurred another leg higher in the crude space, with additional impetus potentially coming from the ongoing reporting around but lack of action on a reserve release.
  • Moving to Gilts, the benchmark opened lower by over 50 ticks and has since slipped another 30 or so to a 90.27 base. Currently lagging, posting downside of 78 ticks vs 63 for Bunds. Action is very much occurring in tandem with the EGB move. Additionally, the UK has a packed agenda with Chancellor Reeves discussing her Spring Statement with the TSC, the release of Mandelson-related files by the government (around 12:30GMT) and then an appearance from BoE's Breeden, however this is scheduled to be on stablecoins.
Context

This hints at a potential tightening path, albeit modest, and indicates market participants are reassessing rate expectations amid geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices. As such, keep an eye on further developments related to ECB guidance and market response to energy fluctuations, which could also impact Gilts amid the UK's active agenda.

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