[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks

In geopolitics, President Trump said Iran had contacted the US and wanted a deal “very badly”, while a US official said talks were still continuing and progress was being made. The US and Iran are discussing a second round of talks, potentially in Islamabad on Thursday, though nuclear weapons and any Strait of Hormuz blockade remain key sticking points. More recently, an Iranian Embassy official in Pakistan said the next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week.
Elsewhere, the IEA completed the monthly trio of oil market reports. In its release, the IEA sees global oil supply exceeding demand by 410k BPD in 2026, (prev. 2.46mln BPD). IEA said crude, fuel, and NGL flows through Strait of Hormuz at 3.8mln BPD in early April (vs more than 20mln BPD pre-war), and added that resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important variable for easing pressure on energy supplies and prices.
Brent fell below USD 99/bbl (USD 96.50-98.68/bbl range), and WTI resided in a USD 90.19-92.10/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF fell -2.5% in choppy trade. Natgas supply is seen as sufficient this summer despite Iran war-related disruption, with National Gas Transmission expecting domestic output and Norwegian flows to meet demand during the lower-consumption warmer months.
Spot gold rose to levels just shy of USD 4,800/oz after a two-day decline, as signs of diplomatic engagement slightly eased inflation concerns. The yellow metal resides towards the top end of a USD 4,743-4,797/oz range at the time of writing.
Copper hit a one-month high and other industrial metals also advanced on optimism around talks, though investors remain cautious over escalation risks. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,054.95- 13,201.93/t. In trade, China’s export growth slowed sharply to 2.5% Y/Y in March, missing forecasts after February’s near-40% gain, while imports surged amid energy-related disruption; analysts said Lunar New Year distortions and a high base likely exaggerated the slowdown. Elsewhere, the EU reached a prelim deal to cut tariff-free steel imports by 47% to 18.3mln metric tons per year and double out-of-quota duties to 50%, while also moving to phase out Russian steel imports, potentially by September 2028.