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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy retraces the weekend gap as Trump signalled the Iranian war will end soon

The energy market has reversed its recent gains following comments from President Trump suggesting an imminent end to the Iranian conflict.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy retraces the weekend gap as Trump signalled the Iranian war will end soon

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  • Crude futures declined and have completely retraced this week's opening surge. Initial pressure was seen as the G7 mulls the release of emergency oil reserves, with their energy ministers set to hold talks later today (timing TBC. The US is said to believe that a joint release of 300mln-400mln barrels of oil is appropriate. Further downside on Monday was seen after US President Trump suggested that the Iranian conflict is nearing an end. That being said, rhetoric from Iran has continued to be confrontational - Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they will not allow a single litre of oil to be exported from the region if the US and Israeli attacks continue, while it added that they will determine how and when the war ends, and stated that US President Trump's comments about Iran were nonsense. Further, the Iranian military said heavy fire will continue to rain down on aggressors. Meanwhile, Bloomberg sources reported that Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and Kuwait reportedly cut oil output by as much as 6.7mln BPD in total. Earlier, Saudi Aramco CEO said there is a disruption of around 180mln barrels so far, whilst there are no problems related to storage capacity locally or internationally. Aramco CEO declined to comment on current oil production levels but noted they have ~2mln BPD of spare capacity, so if there are any shutdowns amid the current situation, bringing that spare capacity back will take a matter of days, he said. WTI Apr resides towards the middle of USD 84.43-91.48/bbl, while Brent May similar trades mid-range of USD 88.05-98.04/bbl.
  • Nat Gas futures were similarly hit, with Dutch TTF this morning -15% and under EUR 50/MWh once again, with the market aggressively "pricing out" the previous risk premium amid US President Trump’s comments.
  • Spot gold continues to edge higher, with the metals complex helped by recent dollar softening and as buying resumed amid hopes of a nearing conclusion to the hostilities and disruption in the Middle East. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 5,117.51-5,186.39 /oz range vs Monday’s hefty USD 5,014.58-5,192.04/oz parameter, in which gold closed at USD 5,136.60/oz.
  • Copper futures advanced alongside the improvement in risk appetite, with little initial reaction seen to the latest trade data from the red metal's largest buyer, China. To recap, Trade Balance, Imports, and Exports smashed expectations. China combined its Jan-Feb data to account for the Lunar New Year holiday distortions. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,992.00- 13,129.00/t.
Context

This statement, combined with potential emergency oil releases by the G7, is shifting sentiment, though confrontational rhetoric from Iran remains a concern. Investors should monitor the dynamics between geopolitical developments and energy supply, as this could significantly influence oil prices and broader market sentiment.

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