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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy spikes as Trump threatens a blockade of Hormuz later today

The announcement of a naval blockade by the US on the Strait of Hormuz marks a significant escalation in tensions with Iran, impacting the energy market as fears of supply disruptions drive Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy spikes as Trump threatens a blockade of Hormuz later today

Iranian National Security Commission Spokesman says US blockade claim is a bluff, ISNA reports

German Economy Ministry says adverse affects [of Middle East conflict] on the German economy are likely to remain evident for the "rest of the year"

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  • US-Iran peace talks over the weekend collapsed, and Washington announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10:00EDT/15:00BST on Monday, applying to all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports. Trump and his advisers are also weighing limited military strikes against Iran, though a full bombing campaign is considered less likely. Iran’s military adviser said Tehran “will not allow” the embargo. (full Newsquawk Analysis on the feed).
  • Analysts describe the April 13th US naval blockade as a high-stakes “economic strangulation” strategy aimed at forcing a breakthrough in stalled US-Iran negotiations, targeting Iran’s ~2mln bpd oil exports to constrain funding of military operations, while also seeking to remove Tehran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz by asserting US-led control over maritime access, and ending what Washington views as “illegal tolls” on shipping.
  • Brent surged above USD 100/bbl, with some analysts forecasting prices could rise to USD 150/bbl if the blockade proceeds along the waterway, which carried around one-fifth of global oil and LNG before the conflict. Brent Jun resides in a current USD 100.94-103.87/bbl range and WTI Jun in a USD 93.58-96.93/bbl parameter.
  • Dutch TTF futures jumped above EUR 51.30/MWh before paring gains, with Bloomberg noting the contract’s trading day was extended to 21 hours from 10. The May and June contracts currently reside sub-EUR 50/MWh.
  • Spot gold fell below USD 4,650/oz before paring losses, and currently trades around USD 4,725/oz, pressured by a stronger USD and fears of central bank rate increases. Spot gold resides in a USD 4,644-4,740/oz range at the time of writing.
  • Copper fell, and aluminium spiked, with metals broadly facing weaker demand risks as soaring energy prices weigh on the global economy. 3M LME copper USD 12,684.63- 12,920.23/t range at the time of writing.
Context

This situation raises the stakes for US-Iran negotiations and could potentially lead to higher oil prices, given the strategic importance of Hormuz for global oil transport. Watch for potential volatility in energy commodities and related assets as the market reacts to this geopolitical development.

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