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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Equities trades mostly lower; AEX outperform on the back of ASML and ArcelorMittal

European equities are largely lower, reflecting a similar sentiment from Wall Street and APAC, largely pressured by falling metal prices.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Equities trades mostly lower; AEX outperform on the back of ASML and ArcelorMittal

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  • European equities are trading mostly lower following a similar performance from Wall Street and APAC. Adding to further downside in sentiment is pressure in metal prices, with gold, silver (amid positive US-Iran updates), and copper all lower, particularly weighing on the FTSE 100 (-0.5%) due to its heavily-weighted mining companies. Furthermore, this morning saw a slew of earnings that were overall mixed. Underperforming against the broader weaker sentiment is the IBEX (-1.0%), pinned down by losses in BBVA (-7.5%), after a slight miss in Q4 2025 profit. Looking ahead, markets are due policy announcements from the BoE and ECB. Both are expected to hold rates, with the BoE's vote split and forecasts in focus, whilst the ECB's EUR language will be watched. 
  • European sectors are trading mostly in the red. Leading the slump are Basic Resources (-1.9%) and Energy (-1.6%), both driven by price action in commodities. Adding to further downside to the energy sector is Shell (-2.0%), after the Co.’s Q4 profit failed to meet expectations. The Autos (-1.8%) sector also lags near the bottom, weighed down by Volvo Car (-20.7%) shares tumbling, following weak earnings and a dire financial outlook, post-earnings. Leading sectors are Technology (+1.8%), Media (+0.6%), and Construction (+0.5%). Despite tech taking a hit on Wall Street yesterday, Alphabet's announcement of plans to double AI spending has underpinned chip names such as ASML (+1.7%).
  • Movers this morning include BNP Paribas (+3.1%) following firmer Q4 earnings, with NII beating expectations, in turn underpinning the CAC 40 (+0.1%), giving the French index some slight momentum. ArcelorMittal (+1.9%) is also firmer after a positive financial outlook, with the Co. expecting Chinese steel demand to grow in 2026. This has also (alongside ASML's gains) contributed to gains in the AEX (+0.3%), outperforming against the broader weaker sentiment.
  • US equity futures are mostly firmer. Upside in the ES (+0.1%), NQ (+0.2%) and RTY (+0.1%) whilst the YM (-0.2%) is lower. Despite a widespread sell-off following yesterday’s close, the NQ has been gaining some momentum following Alphabet’s announcement to double CAPEX spending in 2026. Looking ahead stateside, highlights include commentary from Fed’s Bostic and US jobless claims.
Context

Notably, the AEX showed some resilience, driven by gains in ASML and ArcelorMittal, suggesting sector-specific strengths may counteract broader market weaknesses. The upcoming policy decisions from the BoE and ECB will be crucial, particularly regarding their stance on interest rates and any potential impact on currency and investment flows.

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