[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses pare recent gains; NQ futures outperform following stellar SMCI and CRWV earnings

• European bourses initially opened entirely in the green but has since pared back the earlier gains, now trading with slight losses. Similar price action was seen in Asia, with equities ending mixed. KOSPI was the clear outperformer, driven by gains in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics (+5.5% and +6.7% respectively) after Asia Business Daily reported that Singapore's Temasek is planning to invest directly into the two Cos through its internal investment team. Newsflow has been light, with focus on the US CPI report at 13:30BST. Markets are expecting core CPI to tick lower to 2.5%, its lowest level since early 2021.
• Sectors point to a mixed picture. Energy outperforms, followed by Construction and Basic Resources. To the downside is Health Care, given the broker downgrade for Novo Nordisk (-2.8%), with Consumer Products & Services and Optimised Personal Care rounding out the sector laggards.
• European defence names have been benefiting following earnings by TKMS. The Co. raised its FY26 sales growth to 10-12% (prev. guided 2-5%) and Adj. EBIT margin to up to 6.5% (prev. guided "over" 6%). The reasoning behind the upgrade is the expected higher demand for surface vessels as well as for its sensors and mine-sweeping technology. Shares are higher by c. 15%, which is lifting its German peer Rheinmetall to gains of 1.8%.
• Key movers include: Vestas (+18.2%), Q2 revenue and adj. EBIT beat estimates and raised its FY26 sales guidance; ABN AMRO (+5.2%), Q2 metrics beat consensus and raised its FY26 commercial NII guidance; TUI (-0.2%), Q3 sales missed estimates.
• US equity futures are broadly higher, with slight underperformace in the YM but clear outperformace in the NQ given stellar Supermicro and CoreWeave earnings. The latter gains over 17% pre-market after the Co. raised its FY26 outlook given the accelerating AI infrastructure demand. The former trades 9.2% higher pre-market after FY revenue exceeded expectations.

Sessions that open firm and fade into a major US CPI print follow a well-worn pattern: early risk-taking on idiosyncratic earnings flow gives way to position-squaring ahead of the data, with the morning's sector leadership often unwound or amplified depending on the core surprise. The breadth of the story matters more than the index level here. The NKOSPI outperformance on reported sovereign wealth interest in the memory names fits the recurring pattern of state-capital headlines driving outsized single-session moves in Asian semis, with follow-through historically dependent on confirmation from the parties involved rather than the initial report. The European defence bid off a guidance raise at a naval pure-play, spilling into the larger German peer, is the established contagion channel in that complex: order-book and margin upgrades at one name have tended to re-rate the whole cohort given shared exposure to European rearmament spending. In US futures, NQ leadership over YM on AI-infrastructure earnings is the familiar growth-over-value expression that has characterised this cycle, though pre-market gaps on guidance raises at high-multiple AI names have frequently been faded when the cash open fails to confirm. The 13:30BST core CPI is the clear hinge: into a consensus expecting the lowest core reading in several years, the asymmetry historically sits with an upside surprise repricing the front end and flattening the morning's equity leadership.