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[MARKET ANALYSIS] European equities rebound, sectors point to a cyclical bias; US equity futures mildly gains while SMCI nose-dives pre-market

European equities are showing a rebound, particularly in construction and banking sectors, suggesting a cyclical recovery.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] European equities rebound, sectors point to a cyclical bias; US equity futures mildly gains while SMCI nose-dives pre-market

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  • European bourses have started cash trade on the front foot, rebounding from Thursday's losses. The IBEX 35, which has been hit the hardest recently, is currently bouncing the most, closely followed by the DAX 40. The FTSE 100 lags, weighed on by losses in oil majors (amid the decline in crude) and Smiths Group, as the Co. cuts its 2026 organic revenue growth to between 3-4% from 4-6%.
  • Sectors point to a cyclical bias, with Construction and Materials and Banks sitting at the top of the pile. Energy is the only sector in the red as oil prices pull back after Israel said it will not target Iran's oil infrastructure anymore.
  • Other key movers include Infineon, JD Wetherspoon and many airlines. Airlines have been hurt since the start of the Middle East conflict, with many Cos highlighting in Thursday's session the effect of higher oil prices on jet fuel. However, the rebound seems to come from hope that the US will want to relieve pressure on energy prices. For JD Wetherspoon, the Co. warned that profits may miss expectations as rising taxes, wages and energy costs weigh on the business. Finally, Infineon saw an upgrade from JPMorgan from neutral to overweight, with the bank stating that Infineon is a key beneficiary of AI power demand.
  • US equity futures are also gaining, albeit quite modestly. Super Micro Computer is under significant pressure pre-market after US prosecutors charged “Willy”, “Wally” and “Steven” with conspiring to divert US-assembled high-performance servers with NVIDIA GPUs to China in violation of export controls.
Context

The modest gains in US equity futures indicate cautious optimism, but the pre-market decline in Super Micro Computer highlights ongoing regulatory pressures that could weigh on sentiment. Overall, while there are signs of recovery, sector-specific headwinds remain significant and could hinder broader market momentum.

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