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[MARKET ANALYSIS] European stocks are broadly in the green; Basic Resources weighed on by metals prices; US equity futures underperform as US traders return from holiday

European equities have rebounded from initial losses, buoyed by a strong performance in utilities and insurance, while the basic resources sector struggles due to declining metal prices.

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  • European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) initially started on the backfoot but have reversed earlier losses and are now trading mostly in the green. The SMI (+0.7%) leads, while the AEX (+0.2%) lags, weighted on by losses in ASML (-1.3%). FTSE 100 (+0.5%) sits near the top of the pile, aided by softer-than-expected jobs and wages data, increasing the likelihood of BoE rate cuts.
  • Sectors are mostly firmer. Utilities (+1.3%) and Insurance (+1.2%) reside near the top, with insurance names helped by a broker upgrade for AXA (+1.8%, initiated with outperform at RBC) and a sector perform rating for Allianz. Basic Resources (-1.4%) is the clear underperformer, weighed on by metal prices (XAU -1.4%, XAG -2.4%).
  • As mentioned, miners have been heavily affected this morning by the drop in metal prices. Despite a positive earnings report, highlighted by the beat in sales estimates, Antofagasta (-3.8%) sits bottom of the mining pile. In contrast, BHP (+1.5%) are higher following their earnings report, which featured metrics at the upper end of analyst expectations, aided by stronger copper production and a record metals rally serving to offset weaker iron ore performance. Elsewhere, InterContinental Hotels (+0.2%) released earnings, which were broadly positive despite a tough US market, and announced a USD 100mln buyback programme; note, IHG has trimmed initial gains, but does remain firmer on the day.
  • US equity futures (ES/RTY -0.2%, NQ -0.5%) are entirely in the red as US traders get set to re-enter from their holiday break
Context

Although US futures are underperforming as traders return from the holiday, positive earnings from companies like BHP suggest a mixed sentiment as markets recalibrate post-holiday market dynamics. This divergence may indicate caution ahead for US markets, especially with potential implications on risk appetite and sector rotation.

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