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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed benchmarks firmer in a recovery from Tuesday's JGB driven pressure

The fixed income markets are showing a rebound today, largely recovering from the intense selling pressure seen previously, particularly in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs).

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed benchmarks firmer in a recovery from Tuesday's JGB driven pressure

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  • A firmer start for fixed benchmarks. A move that is largely a rebound from the significant selling pressure seen on Tuesday.
  • Once again, JGBs in focus with overnight commentary helping the benchmark pare yesterday's downside and is back to the 131.45 region, closer to levels from the start of the week but still some 40 ticks shy of the 131.88 opening print. Yields follow suit, the 40yr Japanese yield pared back to 4.0% overnight vs Tuesday's 4.246% record print.
  • USTs in the green, posting gains of six ticks at most. The docket for the US is firmly focused on Davos, where President Trump will be speaking. However, due to a flight issue, he is around three hours delayed; the original schedule had him down for 13:30GMT/08:30ET.
  • Hit 111-19 at best, firmer but well within yesterday's  111-09 to 111-30+ band. Trump aside, today's docket also turns to the SCOTUS, where arguments in Fed Governor Cook's case will be heard. Furthermore, we could get an opinion on the tariff matter, though, as usual, this is not known in advance.
  • Bunds following suit, as high as 128.25, which marginally took the benchmark above Tuesday's 128.19 peak, but unsurprisingly still someway shy of the week's 128.32 opening level.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 26 ticks before extending to just above the 92.00 mark, hitting a 92.03 peak with gains of 45 ticks at most. Though, as above, this is still shy of Monday's 92.50 opening mark. A move driven by Gilts catching up to the relative recovery seen in benchmarks overnight. Additionally, impetus may have been derived from the morning's CPI series as, while the headline was above consensus, that is caveated by fiscal/one-off related impacts, while the Services and Core figures were in-line or cooler-than-expected, depending on the provider.
  • Overall though, the print does not change the narrative for the BoE that the Bank Rate will likely be reduced again this year, and for markets, it does not change the narrative that a cut is not likely until the April/June period.
Context

While yields are easing, the overall tone does not indicate a significant shift in market expectations for rates, particularly for the Bank of England, which still points toward potential cuts later this year. This suggests that while there is short-term strength, the broader environment remains cautious regarding future monetary policy shifts.

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