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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed finds itself marginally firmer into a potentially packed afternoon

Fixed income markets are showing a mild bullish bias this afternoon, driven by a contained overnight session with USTs and Bunds trading within recent ranges.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed finds itself marginally firmer into a potentially packed afternoon

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  • A contained start for fixed but with a very mild bullish bias emerging.
  • Overnight action was limited, USTs and Bunds in thin and familiar ranges.
  • Developments a touch light overnight, geopols aside, as we count down to today's data and potentially more pertinently the possible SCOTUS ruling re. tariffs (as was the case last week, a tariff update is not a certainty) and the meeting between US officials and representatives from Denmark and Greenland.
  • USTs at the upper-end of 112-05+ to 112-11 parameters, firmer by two ticks at best.
  • Bunds in-fitting, towards highs in narrow 127.98 to 128.16 confines. No follow-through to a handful of ECB officials this morning. Benchmarks await results from three auctions shortly.
  • Gilts opened with modest gains, reflecting the mild bullish bias in peers. Since, the benchmark has been choppy in 92.14 to 92.40 confines, but trades broadly in-line with the above. No move to remarks from BoE's Taylor, who stuck to his dovish script and largely echoed language from the December meeting; as a reminder, Taylor was in the majority who voted for a 25bps cut to 3.75%. UK supply was well received, sparking modest upside.
  • OATs await the no-confidence motions against PM Lecornu's government from both the Left and Right, though neither the LFI or RN measure is expected to pass. As such, OATs trade in-line with peers and the 10yr yield spread to Germany is steady at c. 71bps.
Context

Today's focus will pivot towards upcoming data releases and a potentially significant SCOTUS ruling regarding tariffs, which could influence market sentiment and volatility in the near term.

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