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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed mixed amid a busy morning of geopolitics and political updates, incl. UK PM Starmer resigning

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 5 more headlines followed before this page went public
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Israel is mulling announcing symbolic withdrawals from occupied territories in southern Lebanon, according to a source cited by CNN

UK MP Streeting still plans to stand in leadership contest, Sky News reports, citing comments from an ally over the weekend

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed mixed amid a busy morning of geopolitics and political updates, incl. UK PM Starmer resigning

US intelligence remains sceptical Iran will make the required nuclear concessions, Axios reports

Pakistan PM Sharif says talks produced agreement on establishing a high-level committee for political oversight and beginning further technical talks

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  • Fixed benchmarks are mixed. USTs in the red by around 10 ticks, but off a 109-07 trough by another five.
  • USTs lower as a function of catch-up from the holiday session on Friday, and as the complex acknowledged the gap higher in energy at the resumption of trade after Iran seemingly shut Hormuz transit amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon. However, the updates from negotiators thereafter and as technical talks take place this week in Switzerland, points that allowed energy to retreat and gave relief to EGBs.
  • USTs look ahead to remarks from Fed’s Waller.
  • Bunds, as above, benefited from the energy retreat in the second half of the APAC session and are firmer by around 10 ticks, but a similar amount shy of the 126.34 high. Specifics light for the complex, no move to ECB commentary thus far, and we now await text from Lagarde at the ECON hearing.
  • Additionally, Germany digests reports into another meeting of the pensions committee today. The main point from it being that the retirement age will increase, though not at the pace some have been seeking. More broadly, Politico reports budget progress, however, tax reform remains the major outstanding point.
  • Last but not least Gilts, lower by 10 ticks and a similar amount of the low in 88.30-72 confines after gapping higher by 24 ticks, seemingly taking relief from numerous reports that the team around Burnham no longer saw Miliband as the favourite for Chancellor.
  • Since, PM Starmer has resigned. He will serve as caretaker during the process which begins in three weeks and will last for no more than one week, 9th-16th July. Burnham is the clear favourite. However, the three weeks between now and the start of that process could potentially see the odds around Burnham and theoretical rivals, i.e. Streeting, change notably.

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