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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed remains near US auction-induced highs, CPI looms

Fixed income markets are holding near recent highs as investors await the upcoming US CPI release, which is pivotal given the recent weakness in retail sales.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed remains near US auction-induced highs, CPI looms

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  • Another contained start for fixed income into US CPI and before Monday's US holiday, which coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday period.
  • USTs on the backfoot, but only marginally, going into US CPI to round off a packed week of data. Currently, at the low-end of a 112-21 to 112-28 band, and while in the red as it stands,  the upper-end of that band is a new marginal WTD peak.
  • Into CPI, JPMorgan’s US Market Intelligence desk said weaker retail sales and high-frequency indicators have increased the importance of the CPI release, adding that a hawkish CPI print is more likely than a dovish outcome, but does not expect a strong market reaction to a stagflationary reading.
  • Bunds are also contained, though the benchmark finds itself firmer by a handful of ticks, but off best in 128.93 to 129.12 confines. The firmer APAC bias came from gains towards the end of the European day after German Chancellor Merz said he is not in favour of joint eurobonds, in addition to the read-across from a strong US 30yr auction.
  • Gilts opened higher by nine ticks, catching up to the strength seen on that US auction. Since, the benchmark has retreated into the red with losses of c. five ticks in 91.34 to 91.51 parameters. Ahead of US CPI today but, more pertinently for the UK, next week's packed data docket that will likely determine if the BoE cuts in April as markets currently forecast, or if March comes into consideration.
  • JGBs came under pressure to a 131.52 low after BoJ's Tamura said even if they tighten, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
Context

The mixed sentiment suggests a cautionary approach, with expectations leaning towards a potentially hawkish CPI reading, but market reactions may remain muted in light of troubling stagflation signals. Additionally, next week's data across the UK will be crucial for assessing the Bank of England's rate path, particularly with expectations of potential cuts.

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