[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX markets are rangebound with the dollar pausing following post-PCE gains

DXY: Flat

• Pauses after recently gaining on the firmer-than-expected headline PCE data and with little fresh macro catalysts overnight for the US, while participants await the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium later and Fed Chair Warsh's keynote address on Friday.

EUR/USD: Flat

• Moved off the prior day's trough, but with upside contained amid a quiet calendar and light newsflow from the bloc.

GBP/USD: Flat

• Lingers near a weekly low beneath the 1.3600 handle following recent underperformance and a lack of pertinent drivers.

USD/JPY: Flat

• Price action is choppy in the absence of any tier-1 releases from Japan and after comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino, who reiterated the central bank's hawkish bias, stating that he believes the BoJ should continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD +0.1% / NZD/USD +0.2%

• Mildly positive amid gains in metal prices and rate hike expectations, with NAB now expecting the RBA to resume hiking rates at the September meeting following the recent firmer-than-expected CPI data.

Rangebound dollar consolidation after a firmer inflation print is a familiar pattern in the run-up to Jackson Hole: in past episodes positioning has tended to go quiet into the symposium, with realised volatility compressing until the keynote resets the policy debate and the front end re-prices. The distinction worth drawing is between pairs driven by the domestic leg and those driven by the dollar leg. USD/JPY is the former here: hawkish BoJ rhetoric from a deputy governor follows an established pattern of verbal guidance building expectations toward further normalisation, and such commentary has historically supported the yen only when it shifts the perceived timing of the next hike rather than restating the bias. The antipodeans are reacting to the rate repricing channel: a major domestic bank pulling forward an RBA hike call after a firm CPI print is the kind of signal that has tended to keep the AUD bid on dips, with the metals bid adding a second transmission channel via terms of trade. Cable sitting beneath a round handle on underperformance with no fresh driver fits the usual profile of a pair trading as a residual of the dollar. The immediate follow-ons are the symposium speeches themselves, and whether the PCE-driven dollar bid reasserts or fades once the event risk clears.