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[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX quiet with DXY unchanged and high-beta slightly outpacing peers as markets brace for negotiation updates

The FX market is currently in a holding pattern, as the DXY remains unchanged and high-beta currencies slightly outperform.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 11 more headlines followed before this page went public
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[CALENDAR ADDITION] BoE's Greene on BBG TV at 15:15BST/10:15ET. ECB's Nagel on BBG TV at 16:30BST/11:30ET.

Israel's military has issued an evacuation order for large areas of southern Lebanon

[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX quiet with DXY unchanged and high-beta slightly outpacing peers as markets brace for negotiation updates

Greece is considering renewing the term of ECB's Stournaras

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting

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  • A fairly quiet beginning to the session for FX majors, with high-beta mildly outperforming and DXY unchanged as Brent crude stabilises around the USD 95/bbl mark. 
  • For now, DXY hovers just above the 98.00 handle, which it dipped under on Tuesday. The narrative remains an optimistic one with MUFG saying it looks like "the period when investors begin throwing in the towel on the long dollar trade." and ING writing this morning that these USD levels "seem to embed a fair amount of premature optimism". The greenback sees a busy calendar ahead with comments from the US President to be aired at 11:00 BST via Fox News and several Fed speakers, including Barr (voter; no text expected) to speak on consumer compliance supervision and regulation, Hammack on CNBC (2026 voter; no text expected) and Bowman (voter, dove; no text expected) to speak at the IIF.
  • Several updates for the UK this morning, with Times and Sky News scoops lacking good news for the Chancellor. On the domestic front, The Times hears that UK Chancellor Reeves is looking to back down on plans to increase fuel duty by 5p a litre from September; the suggestion is that the move would cost about GBP 2.6bln. On defence, Chancellor Reeves is said to have proposed only increasing defence spending by less than GBP 10bln over the next four years, fearing a bigger increase would be unaffordable. On the docket ahead, the Chancellor is planning to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in the US today. It should not be a game-changer. She is expected to touch on the Strait of Hormuz, the need to stabilise markets, and potentially to confirm the UK's participation in the EU’s EUR 90bln loan to Ukraine, POLITICO reported. BoE's Greene and Bailey to speak later in the day. As sterling digests these updates, EUR/GBP trades unchanged below the key 0.87 mark, while Cable is also unchanged as it pulled back from Tuesday's 1.3589 high. 
Context

This stability reflects an underlying caution as traders brace for upcoming comments from key U.S. officials and more negotiations from the UK, suggesting a focus on fiscal policy and geopolitical stability, which could influence dollar sentiment moving forward.

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