[MARKET ANALYSIS] G10FX looks through crude surge, HUF surges on Tisza supermajority; heavy speaker slate due this week

FX markets are displaying a risk-off bias, albeit not to the extent you would expect with Brent +7%. This somewhat calm move in currency markets follows the conclusion of US-Iran talks without an agreement on the nuclear issue; however, both sides framed negotiations as positive and recent Qatari reporting suggests Pakistani officials are continuing efforts to bring both sides back to the negotiating table, each reportedly interested in continuing dialogue.
DXY trades without conviction on either side of a 99.00 handle. The buck looks towards a heavy week of Fed speak, alongside PPI data on Tuesday. On the docket today, uber-dove Miran is set to speak on "Building the Financial System."
HUF benefits from the election of the opposition Tisza’s Magyar. Preliminary results, based on more than 98% of counted votes, put Magyar on course for 138 seats (supermajority 133 seats). Although markets had already priced in a Magyar victory, a supermajority will catapult the incoming PM's bid to fast track various HUF-positive pledges (See Newsquawk Analysis on the headline feed). As such, EURHUF surpassed April 2022 lows, marking a session low of 364.02.
NZD remains the most resilient in the face of energy prices as markets move to price in 82bps of hiking by year-end, an increase of c. 7bps from Friday. Kiwi trades just off highs, after facing resistance at the 0.5840 mark.