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[MARKET ANALYSIS] G10FX looks through crude surge, HUF surges on Tisza supermajority; heavy speaker slate due this week

The G10FX market is displaying a risk-off bias, despite a significant surge in crude prices, suggesting that currency traders are not overly concerned about short-term market shocks.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 10 more headlines followed before this page went public
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CPC’s oil exports rose 48% in March from February to 1.58mln bpd, boosted by recovery at the Tengiz field, according to sources cited by Reuters

French President Macron said France and the UK will organise a conference in coming days aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in Hormuz

[MARKET ANALYSIS] G10FX looks through crude surge, HUF surges on Tisza supermajority; heavy speaker slate due this week

Baker Hughes (BKR) will sell Waygate Technologies to Sweden’s Hexagon for about USD 1.45bln, WSJ reports

IDF troops are expanding targeted ground operations against Hezbollah infrastructure in the Bint Jbeil area of southern Lebanon to strengthen forward defence

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  • FX markets are displaying a risk-off bias, albeit not to the extent you would expect with Brent +7%. This somewhat calm move in currency markets follows the conclusion of US-Iran talks without an agreement on the nuclear issue; however, both sides framed negotiations as positive and recent Qatari reporting suggests Pakistani officials are continuing efforts to bring both sides back to the negotiating table, each reportedly interested in continuing dialogue.
  • DXY trades without conviction on either side of a 99.00 handle. The buck looks towards a heavy week of Fed speak, alongside PPI data on Tuesday. On the docket today, uber-dove Miran is set to speak on "Building the Financial System."
  • HUF benefits from the election of the opposition Tisza’s Magyar. Preliminary results, based on more than 98% of counted votes, put Magyar on course for 138 seats (supermajority 133 seats). Although markets had already priced in a Magyar victory, a supermajority will catapult the incoming PM's bid to fast track various HUF-positive pledges (See Newsquawk Analysis on the headline feed). As such, EURHUF surpassed April 2022 lows, marking a session low of 364.02.
  • NZD remains the most resilient in the face of energy prices as markets move to price in 82bps of hiking by year-end, an increase of c. 7bps from Friday. Kiwi trades just off highs, after facing resistance at the 0.5840 mark.
Context

The Hungarian Forint (HUF) is notably strengthening following a supermajority election win, which may prompt fiscal measures favorable for the currency. Furthermore, market attention is shifting towards upcoming Fed communications and PPI data, which could influence the USD's direction amid its current lack of conviction.

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