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[MARKET ANALYSIS] GBP unreactive to PM stepping down; JPY looks to recent lows as USD firms

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 5 more headlines followed before this page went public
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Israel is mulling announcing symbolic withdrawals from occupied territories in southern Lebanon, according to a source cited by CNN

UK MP Streeting still plans to stand in leadership contest, Sky News reports, citing comments from an ally over the weekend

[MARKET ANALYSIS] GBP unreactive to PM stepping down; JPY looks to recent lows as USD firms

US intelligence remains sceptical Iran will make the required nuclear concessions, Axios reports

Pakistan PM Sharif says talks produced agreement on establishing a high-level committee for political oversight and beginning further technical talks

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  • DXY is firmer against all peers as it stabilises towards recent highs above 100. JPY is the underperformer after unsuccessful jawboning attempts, NOK holds on to gains after crude gapped higher at the re-open.
  • USD-specific drivers are light, focus overnight was on geopolitics with US-Iran talks over the weekend whipsawing crude benchmarks. The main data point this week is PCE on Thursday, the session today sees remarks from Fed's Waller, aside from this, the session is likely to be quiet and driven by geopolitical moves in oil/yields. DXY gapped higher at the APAC re-open and rose throughout the European morning to a peak of 101.01. Since this peak, the index has slipped and now more towards the unchanged mark.
  • UK PM Starmer announces he will step down, remaining as a caretaker until a new leader is elected (Nominations begin on 9th July). Burnham is overwhelmingly considered as the front-runner, with GBP and Gilts seeing underperformance in recent weeks. There was no reaction to the announcement from Starmer himself, as it had been widely touted in recent days/weeks, especially following Burnham's convincing victory in the Makerfield by-election. Given Burnham is nearly certain to become the next PM, focus is on his cabinet appointments, specifically his Chancellor pick. Over the weekend, the FT and Times made it clear that Miliband would be the least market friendly, citing comments from FTSE 100 executives; retaining Reeves would be the most market-friendly option, though the same outlets noted Burnham would likely want to remove the current Chancellor in a shift away from the last administration. GBP/USD -0.1% and tracking the stronger Buck. EUR/GBP +0.1%, gapped higher at the APAC re-open, but reversed most gains. 
  • JPY continues to underperform and moves further into intervention territory as USD/JPY looks towards 161.81 highs made last week. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires overnight, said they were “ready to act suitably on currency fluctuations whenever necessary”; not sparking a move in the Yen. USD/JPY marked a session high of 161.78, looking to the aforementioned levels to the upside; awaiting further comments from Japanese officials.

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