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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Gilts lead after Burnham was blocked, USTs count down to supply

Gilts are seeing notable strength today, led by developments surrounding Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham, which has alleviated concerns about potential leadership challenges in the Labour Party.

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  • Fixed income benchmarks are in the green. USTs firmer by a handful of ticks, at the top-end of a 111-25 to 111-29+ band. The US session is relatively quiet, aside from 2yr supply ahead. Strength for fixed is perhaps a function of the slight equity pressure, which in turn can be explained at least in part by ongoing/renewed trade tensions relating to the US, Canada and China, after Trump's rhetoric. One other point of support might be the US conducting a rate check in the JPY on Friday, as this could be interpreted as a precursor to joint intervention; given the moves in long-end Japanese yields seen last week, and the global influence that had, any such action could target JGBs in addition to the Yen.
  • Bunds are firmer, with gains of just over 20 ticks at best. Specifics for the bloc are a little light, with no move seen to German Ifo, which came in softer-than-expected for the climate figure, while the other components were mixed vs prev. For the EZ, the week is mainly waiting to see how the trade situation develops, with the EU meeting today to discuss unfreezing EU-US talks.
  • Gilts outperform, gains of c. 30 ticks at a 91.56 high. Upside that is, primarily, being driven by the news that Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham will not be able to run for the vacant Labour MP seat. A block that prevents Burnham from launching a leadership challenge against PM Starmer, as some have speculated he might, despite Burnham himself suggesting Starmer is the best person to be PM currently. While welcomed by Gilts, the block has prompted significant backlash against PM Starmer from within the Labour Party, and as such, this narrative may return.
Context

This news appears to have bolstered the market’s confidence, influencing a firmer stance in Gilts, while USTs remain in a narrow band with upcoming supply looming. Overall, the fixed income market seems responsive to trade tensions and political developments, which could sway sentiment across assets going forward.

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