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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global fixed benchmarks broadly unchanged awaiting geopolitical developments and Fed speak

Global fixed benchmarks are holding steady amid geopolitical tensions and anticipation of Federal Reserve commentary.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global fixed benchmarks broadly unchanged awaiting geopolitical developments and Fed speak

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  • Global fixed benchmarks are mixed/flat, but have held an upward bias throughout the European session, with the crude complex residing towards lows. Focus remains on the geopolitical front, with Lebanon-Israel having agreed to a ceasefire (but there have been reports of flare-ups in the south of Lebanon), whilst the US-Iran have yet to agree on a second round of talks. Nonetheless, President Trump continues to remain positive, suggesting that “they are making a lot of progress on Iran, and he is not sure the ceasefire needs to be extended”.
  • USTs are currently trading flat/incrementally firmer and toward the upper end of a 111-04 to 111-08+ range. Aside from lower energy prices, US paper has not had much to digest, and this has been reflected in the fairly lacklustre price action. The US data docket is lacking, so more focus will be on Fed speak via Daly, Barkin and Waller later today.
  • Bunds are modestly lower/flat, but have been moving higher throughout the European morning, alongside the pressure seen in the crude complex. Currently trading at the upper end of a 125.11 to 125.42 range. Earlier, there was some commentary from ECB’s Muller, who struck a familiar hawkish tone, noting that an April hike cannot be excluded; comments which add on to the hawkish tone struck by other ECB members and the Minutes released on Thursday.
  • Gilts are higher ever-so-slightly, where UK paper reacted to domestic politics. In brief, reports on Thursday suggested that Mandelson failed his vetting process for the Foreign Office – this has led to the Top Foreign Official to leave his role. This renewed some pressure for the PM to leave his position, but Chief Secretary Darren Jones, said the PM won't resign – he struck a familiar line, where he suggested that Starmer had no knowledge of the failed vetting process. At least in the near term, the pressure on Starmer appears to be limited in nature, though MUFG highlights that the Labour Party could run into issues surrounding the local elections in early May. UK paper currently trades within a 87.83 to 88.22 range.
Context

With Treasury yields trading flat but maintaining an upward inclination, the market is largely waiting for directional cues from upcoming Fed officials' speeches and any developments in geopolitical scenarios such as the ceasefire in Lebanon. The European session sees Bunds experiencing modest movement as ECB commentary leans hawkish, keeping an eye on potential rate implications.

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