Newsquawk Logo

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and more US-Iran updates

Global fixed income benchmarks reflect mixed signals as USTs remain flat while Bunds and Gilts show strength amid easing geopolitical tensions.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 8 more headlines followed before this page went public
Newsquawk headlinesUTC

Roughly 14% of enrollees to the US' ACA failed to make the first monthly payment for January, WSJ reports; typically, the figure is a midsingle-digit.

The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reports citing US officials; in a bid to pressure Iran while mulling the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and more US-Iran updates

Semafor reports that a group of US senators, from both parties, will urge the Trump administration to extends the USMCA agreement

[CALENDAR ADDITION] BoE's Greene on BBG TV at 15:15BST/10:15ET. ECB's Nagel on BBG TV at 16:30BST/11:30ET.

Open the platform and use it. The whole workspace is free to try, with no signup and no card. When you want the headlines arriving live instead of on a delay, Newsquawk Pro is £24.99 for 7 days.

Try the platform free
Free. No signup, no card.
  • Global fixed benchmarks are currently mixed, with USTs flat whilst Bunds and Gilts continue to build on recent strength. The geopolitical environment appears to be easing, with traders now digesting President Trump’s latest comments, where he stated that he views the war as being very close to over, adding that he does not think it will be necessary to extend a ceasefire. Given the generally positive mood music, crude prices remain at recent lows, reducing inflationary implications on the economy for the time being. Markets await further commentary from POTUS at 11:00 BST.
  • USTs are currently flat and hold within a 111-15+ to 111-21 range. From a yield perspective, the US 2yr remains around near-term lows at 3.755%, but still a far cry away from pre-war levels at around the 3.50% mark. Overall, markets remain cautiously optimistic amidst reports of a second round of talks between the US and Iran. 
  • Geopols aside, import/export prices, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Fed’s Beige Book, TIC/foreign bond investment data are due. On the speaker slate, Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Hammack are all on the docket.
  • Bunds are firmer by c. 15 ticks, but off the morning’s highs, to trade within a 125.43 to 125.68 range. Further pressure in German paper could see a breach below Tuesday’s close at 125.32, and then 125.21 (50% fib of Tuesday’s move). Early action saw the benchmark move lower, which came alongside a gradual pick-up in energy prices - perhaps some early positioning heading into a 2052 & 2056 Bund auction later (Preview on Newsquawk headline feed). From a yield perspective, the GE 2yr oscillates around near-term troughs at 2.53%, but well off the levels seen pre-war. UniCredit analysts highlight that following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, the German 10/30yr spread has bull-steeped and is currently trading at 56bps, 14bps higher than the recent trough. Despite the recent hopes of an end of the conflict, the analysts do not see the spread returning to the pre-conflict 67bps anytime soon.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 30 ticks, briefly extended to a peak of 89.31, before scaling back off those levels as the morning progressed to make a trough of 89.06. As above, Gilts moved higher on the geopolitical optimism, before moving off best levels alongside peers. In terms of the BoE, money markets currently assign no chance of a hike in April, and fully price in a 25bps hike in September – ultimately, markets remain cautious about the inflationary implications of the Iran conflict, despite signs of easing tensions. Focus today will be on BoE speak from Greene (15:15 BST), and Bailey, the latter slated to speak twice; in recent commentary, the Governor believed markets were “getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes”.
Context

With President Trump's comments suggesting a potential resolution to conflicts, this has led to cautious optimism in the market, although inflationary risks remain under scrutiny. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data and comments from central bank officials for further directional cues.

Related headlines

The whole workspace, free to try.

Try it free
Newsquawk Logo

© 2026 Newsquawk. All rights reserved.