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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Initial crude upside unwound as we look to Tuesday's technical meeting, metals mixed/lower

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Initial crude upside unwound as we look to Tuesday's technical meeting, metals mixed/lower

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  • A choppy morning for crude as we digest the initial escalation and then the easing of tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend, with the near-term focus now on Tuesday’s technical talks in Doha.
  • Just after the open, WTI and Brent hit highs of USD 70.97/bbl and USD 73.39/bbl respectively. While firmer by over USD 1.50/bbl on the day at the peak, the move failed to test Friday’s respective USD 71.86/bbl and USD 75.13/bbl tops, and by extension numerous levels thereafter.
  • Currently, energy is firmer but only by around USD 0.20-0.50/bbl. Having pulled back in acknowledgement of the initial Axios scoop that the side would be meeting this week, and, ahead of that, have agreed to stop strikes. Nonetheless, there still appears to be conflict occurring in Gaza and Lebanon.
  • Spot gold picked up at the end of last week, reacting to the initial US strikes in the Hormuz area. The yellow metal ended the week at USD 4091, just off Friday’s USD 4096/oz best, though markedly shy of that week’s USD 4198/oz peak. For today, as above, geopolitical tensions have moderated somewhat and as such, XAU has lost some of its haven allure, slipping into the red by around USD 30/oz, with the US equity tone also bid and tech-led after the huge Korean AI and Chip spending plan, alongside confirmation that SPCX is to join the Nasdaq.
  • Base metals are mixed, despite the firmer US tone. Instead, reflecting the mixed APAC handover and acknowledging the marginal deterioration in the European tone across the morning. 3M LME Copper is just about in the green, but in a thin and familiar range, shy of the mid-May peak.

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