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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Metals price out some geopolitical risk premia after Trump says Iran has "no plan" to kill protestors

The recent comments from President Trump regarding Iran have triggered a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums that were previously supporting precious metals prices.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Metals price out some geopolitical risk premia after Trump says Iran has "no plan" to kill protestors

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  • Precious metals are broadly in the red this morning, following on from the subdued action seen overnight. Negative action this morning due to some unwinding of recent geopolitical risk premia after US President Trump said that he had been told the killing in Iran is stopping and that there is no plan for executions. As a reminder, the President had repeatedly threatened action against the Iranian regime, if they killed protestors.
  • As it stands spot gold trades at the lower end of a USD 4,580.98-4,632.45/oz range; currently oscillating on either side of the USD 4.6k/oz mark. A little bit of a bounce was seen in the yellow metal in early morning action, but lacked a clear driver – perhaps as traders digest the still-tense mood in the Middle East and with President Trump suggesting that Ukraine’s Zelenskiy is to blame for the current stalemate in negotiations between Ukraine-Russia. Elsewhere, spot silver underperforms vs peers and currently resides just shy of the USD 90/oz mark vs its ATH at USD 93.59/oz.
  • Base metals are also following precious peers lower; 3M LME Copper trades just above the USD 13k/t mark, in a USD 12,914-13,216.35/t range – downside which also follows the negative sentiment seen across the Chinese equities space.
Context

With indications that tensions may be easing, such as claims that the execution of protestors is stopping, traders are reacting by unwinding some positions in gold and silver, which are now exhibiting negative momentum amidst a broader risk-on sentiment. This shift may point to more stability ahead, but vigilance remains required as the regional situation is still fraught with tensions.

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