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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Mixed trade across G10s amid ongoing geopolitics; AUD outperforms after the RBA hiked rates

The trade in G10 currencies is mixed, largely driven by geopolitical factors and the recent RBA rate hike.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 11 more headlines followed before this page went public
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Mixed trade across G10s amid ongoing geopolitics; AUD outperforms after the RBA hiked rates

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  • DXY trades flat within a narrow range and off the overnight high of 100.115 and closer to session lows. This follows yesterday’s weakness with recent price action largely at the whim of oil prices. Focus remains on geopolitics, although there was nothing too escalatory, and President Trump said that Iran wants to make a deal and is talking to their people. Furthermore, it was reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and US Envoy Witkoff were in contact over text messages in recent days, although Iran has refuted the reports of recent contacts. Some USD weakness was seen as Israeli Defence Minister Katz says Iran's Top Security Chief Larijani was killed in the airstrike. DXY resides in a current 99.773-100.115 range and within yesterday’s 99.660-100.480 range.
  • EUR/USD edges higher following APAC weakness as the single currency tracks the USD. EU’s Kallas this morning suggested a model similar to the Black Sea could be used in the Strait of Hormuz, whilst suggesting the door is not closed on the participation in the Strait. Aside from that, EUR catalysts have been quiet with little reaction seen to reports that the EU is close to finalising a trade deal with Australia after years of negotiations. EUR/USD trades within 1.1466-1.1523 as it eyes Monday’s 1.1525 and last Friday’s 1.1530.
  • GBP/USD tilts higher in tandem with peers as the USD edged lower. UK-specific newsflow has been light, while traders ponder the UK-US relationship amid the Iranian war, currently facing strains due to the disagreements on participation. Nonetheless, GBP/USD resides towards the top of a 1.3273-1.3338 and eyes Monday’s 1.3340 high.
  • USD/JPY rebound from a brief dip to sub-159.00 territory with upside facilitated as the dollar and oil partially recovered. The pair has come off best levels amid the aforementioned USD weakness, with USD/JPY currently in a 159.00-159.50 range and within yesterday’s 158.85-159.75 parameter.
  • Antipodeans are mixed with AUD/USD ultimately firmer in the aftermath of the RBA. The RBA decided to hike rates for a second consecutive meeting, through a narrow majority of 5-4 votes, which dragged the currency lower. However, AUD later rebounded as RBA Governor Bullock provided a hawkish tone during the press conference as she stated that the rise in oil prices is not the reason for the rate increase and that inflation was already too high, while she added that the dissenters voted to hold in a hawkish sense and that the discussion was about the timing, and not the direction of policy and hike.
Context

The AUD has shown strength following the RBA's decision to raise rates, signaling a hawkish stance that contrasts with the softer USD prompted by geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. This dynamic suggests that traders should remain aware of how these developments impact risk sentiment across the board.

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