[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil futures mildly gained amid lack of Hormuz deal and as shipping through the strait grinds to a halt, while US-Iran MoU is set to expire today

Episodes in which tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed or halted have historically produced a bid in crude that is front-loaded and fear-driven rather than fundamentals-driven: the premium sits in the prompt spreads and in freight and insurance rates, and it unwinds quickly once transit normalises, since actual supply loss has rarely followed even severe rhetoric. The distinguishing question in such episodes is whether shipping is being physically impeded or merely repriced by insurers and owners, because the former tightens prompt balances while the latter only lifts the risk premium. The expiry of an understanding between the US and Iran without a replacement is the classic setup for this pattern: participants tend to hold a geopolitical premium into the deadline and reassess on whether talks resume, lapse, or escalate. Gold's move alongside crude fits the established safe-haven pairing in Gulf risk episodes, with the metal typically retracing faster than oil once headlines cool. Copper trading on the domestic risk mood in its largest buyer, with activity data pending, is a separate and thinner signal that has historically been subordinated to the China prints themselves. The tells to note are vessel transit counts in coming sessions, prompt WTI/Brent timespreads versus the flat price, and any statement from either capital on whether the MoU lapses or is extended.