[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil futures remain afloat after gaining yesterday as the US-Iran MoU expired, while Trump rejected an extension of the truce and threatened to bomb US ally Oman

Episodes where a lapsed or unrenewed US-Iran arrangement coincides with presidential threats have historically supported crude through the risk premium channel rather than through any actual supply loss, and the premium has tended to fade quickly when physical flows through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remain uninterrupted. The distinction that matters is between rhetoric and tanker data: insurance rates, freight, and loadings out of Iranian and Omani terminals are the tells that separate a headline premium from a genuine supply repricing. Threats directed at Oman carry an unusual twist, given Oman's established role as the principal back-channel between Washington and Tehran, and episodes where intermediaries are threatened have tended to complicate rather than accelerate any deal, extending the period of uncertainty. Gold's pullback against firmer oil and an indecisive dollar is a familiar pattern ahead of scheduled Fed communication, with positioning pared into the Minutes rather than directional bets added. Copper remains tethered to Chinese activity data, and soft prints there have repeatedly outweighed geopolitical risk sentiment for the base metals complex.